June 2024

New population data up to December 2023 reveals another record growth year for Australia, though there are signs the rapid increase might be tapering off. We examine the latest trends across states and territories.

As of 31 December 2023, Australia's population reached 26,966,789, an increase of 651,200 over the past year. This represents the highest numerical growth recorded in a calendar year, with a 2.5% rise, which, while significant, isn't a record in percentage terms due to the larger population base.

The annual growth slightly outpaced the 644,500 increase recorded for the financial year ending 30 June 2023. Typically, the financial year figure is more crucial as local populations are reported at the end of June, although updates for state, territory, and national populations are made quarterly.

Indications of Slowing Overseas Migration

The most recent quarterly data hints at a possible slowdown in migration growth. Over the past year, the natural population increase (births minus deaths) was 103,947, while net overseas migration (NOM) contributed 547,267. Consequently, overseas migration accounted for 84% of the total population growth.

In the last quarter, migration dropped to 107,261, which annualizes to approximately 430,000, about 100,000 less than the annual figure. This is still a historically high number but indicates a slight decrease compared to previous quarters.

Overseas migration has surged in recent years as borders reopened following low migration in 2020 and negative migration in 2021. It's expected that long-term migration will stabilize around 300,000 annually, which remains historically high.

State and Territory Trends

Here are the population changes by state and territory for December 2023:

State/Territory	ERP December 2023	Change over previous year	% change over previous year	Natural increase	Net overseas migration	Net interstate migration
NSW	8,434,754	185,459	2.25%	32,518	184,619	-31,658
Vic	6,905,978	186,491	2.78%	26,591	160,175	-275
Qld	5,528,292	141,378	2.62%	21,845	87,938	+31,595
SA	1,866,318	30,222	1.65%	3,010	28,501	-1,289
WA	2,927,888	93,771	3.31%	14,559	68,503	+10,709
Tas	574,705	2,353	0.41%	523	5,101	-3,271
NT	253,634	2,386	0.95%	2,071	4,272	-3,957
ACT	470,232	9,106	1.97%	2,821	8,119	-1,834
Australia	26,966,789	651,214	2.47%	103,947	547,267

Source: ABS, National, State and Territory Population - December 2023

Every state and territory experienced population growth in 2023. Notably, only Western Australia and Queensland saw positive interstate migration. Queensland consistently reports positive interstate migration, while WA's figures often depend on the mining sector's performance. WA also led in percentage growth at 3.31%.

Overseas migration remained robust, particularly in NSW and WA, both achieving record highs. Victoria also saw substantial migration, although it declined in the final quarter compared to the previous financial year.

Tasmania has returned to its typical slow growth after a spike during the COVID-19 pandemic, recording its highest ever overseas migration in 2023 but losing nearly as many people to interstate migration. South Australia has also reverted to negative interstate migration, though not in large numbers, while Victoria has balanced its interstate migration numbers after significant losses during the pandemic.

Looking Ahead

These figures are state and territory-level datasets published quarterly. For local population data by Local Government Area, we typically wait for the June quarter datasets, which are compared annually. The next update for local area data will be available in March next year.